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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31695/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T09:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 
Longitude (deg): 
Latitude (deg): 
Half-angular width (deg): 

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 57.97 hour(s)
Difference: -11.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-06-25T23:11Z

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